Lindor, Wilson And All Star Game Voting Ideas

And A Few Second Half Fantasy Breakouts

I’m still trying to wrangle my thoughts around Andrew Abbott, Brandon Walter and the implications of left handedness for pitchers and bastards in medieval heraldry…. In the meantime, we’ll flesh out some thoughts on the MLB All Star Game voting process, then break down some potential fantasy breakout names for the second half.

I recently got into a brief back-and-forth with the great Jay Jaffe on Blue Sky over his post celebrating Francisco Lindor being named starting shortstop for the National League in this year’s All Star Game. Jaffe’s point was that Lindor had deserved to start multiple times before this in recent years, but was snubbed by the fan vote despite being the best NL shortstop this decade.

My initial response was off the cuff: given that Trea Turner has been (slightly) better than Lindor offensively, has improved on defense, and had accrued more fWAR—I didn’t write all of this—is “screwing” Turner justified to satisfy a past Lindor injustice? (obviously, in general I think no).

Jaffe replied that Turner wasn’t being screwed at all: he’d started the midsummer classic last year in a season where Lindor proved to be nearly twice as valuable at season’s end, and Turner also started in 2022 (no mention of either’s value that season). That seemed reasonable enough, but then I dug into the seasons in question.

While I did not and could not dispute that Lindor has been more valuable than Turner this decade, it seems that Jaffe takes issue with the structure of the process: i.e., that fans vote on starters based on a limited sample and ultimately haven’t properly recognized that Lindor has been the best NL shortstop since 2021. I agree with all of this (assuming it’s his position).

To be honest, I hadn’t recalled that Turner started the ASG last year and that was my first point in my sur-reply: the fact that it’s a popularity contest so diminishes the accomplishment of being named “starter” that no one who closely follows baseball views ASG starter status as conclusive evidence of players’ quality that season. (It is problematic that Lindor hasn’t been selected to be even a reserve this decade).

As for Turner, his selection last year highlights another infirmity in the process: there is no minimum games played requirement in the popularity contest. Trea missed 38 games in the first half last season, but he started hot at the plate, went out injured for six weeks, then kept raking when he returned to produce an offensively ironclad half, albeit in just 57 games (.349 average, .941 OPS, 161 wRC+).

Lindor was really good too but he had a very slow start through April that lingered in the collective baseball consciousness (largely due to loud social media complaints, often by some of his own fans). At the time of the ASG, he was batting .253 with 17 homers and a .784 OPS in 95 games (122 wRC+).

At the 2024 break the WAR count was 4.0 Lindor to 3.1 Turner, but given his time on the IL, Turner was more valuable per game (.054 to .042 fWAR). He also had the shiny average and OPS, on top of decisively winning the first impression battle (.346 average through April to Lindor’s .197), factors that appeal to casuals. Even from a “nerd” perspective he was almost 40% better than Lindor with the stick. In the popularity contest, Turner never gave fan voters a reason to doubt.

(N.B.: The biggest starter snub last year was actually Elly De La Cruz, who didn’t miss any time, tied Lindor in dingers with a slightly better 124 wRC+, and led all NL shortstops with 4.3 fWAR—while stealing 46 bases, the most awe-inspiring stat any of the three produced).

Lindor was—and always has been—better than Turner defensively, though that’s why we have WAR, which aims to capture everything. (This year, interestingly, Turner has closed that gap; he actually leads Lindor in both Statcast’s Fielding Run Value, 7 to 4, and DRS, +1 to 0).

At the end of last season, Jaffe was of course correct that Lindor turned out to be more valuable, posting 7.8 fWAR to Turner’s 3.8 (with a similar gap in bWAR). Frankie even finished second in MVP voting to that Ohtani guy. But at the time fans voted and for the timeframe under consideration, Trea was better on a rate basis. The real problem, if there is one, resides in the fact that a half-time player like Turner could even be eligible.

Jaffe has also floated the idea that a player’s entire prior calendar year should be considered in All Star voting, but again, even though I like that idea, those are not the rules we have. (Query how this would affect rookies, who by definition have at most a “cup of coffee” worth of prior season performance—which may not be a bad thing, see below).

What about 2022? Both had played full time and Turner was more valuable at the break (4.1 to 3.2 fWAR), and they were essentially tied in WAR terms at the end of the season (both at 6.4). So that starting nod to Turner seems fine on any basis. Lindor was not selected as a bench player in either year, which really is a shame given how good he’s been—although Dansby Swanson and Elly were more than deserving backups in 2022 and 2024, respectively, with each actually leading all NL shortstops in WAR terms at the break.

But again, in the current flawed system, where fans can vote multiple times per day and week based on a player’s first 90 or 50 or hell, ONE first-half game played, none of the historical single-season results are that strange.

I don’t have any truly original solutions. We probably should have a games played minimum at the time votes are finalized. Maybe 70% of available team games? For example, yes, we all know Ronald Acuña is the best outfielder in the NL, but he’d only played in 37 games (131 ABs) when starters were announced, compared to 80-plus for other contenders. Should he be starting this particular ASG?

There should also be a blend of fan and media voting. Call it the Jacob Wilson rule, perhaps. The rookie’s been great, but a lot of his voting momentum came when he was batting .360-plus. Even then he and Bobby Witt were about tied for fWAR among AL shortstops.

Now? Wilson is hitting .337 while Witt has more power (11-9 in home runs, .197 to .136 ISO). Their overall offensive value is close—138 to 124 wRC+ to Wilson—but Witt is the far better defender and baserunner. Consequently Witt actually leads all MLB shortstops with 4.2 fWAR (Jeremy Peña has 4.1 and was tracking to be an even bigger snub before a recent injury solved that debate). Wilson has accrued 2.9 fWAR and unlike Lindor he has no track record of greatness. No objective analyst would credibly argue Wilson is a better player than Witt, the way one could for Lindor over Turner. Wilson has simply won the popularity contest.

***

Second Half Breakouts

As we head into the break, here’s a few (hopefully non obvious) potential fantasy breakouts at each position for the second half. Roster rates taken from Yahoo! Public Leagues.

Catcher:

• Shallow leagues: Alejandro Kirk. The zaftig Jays catcher is hitting the way many expected (and the data portended) in prior seasons. He’s playing 4 of every 5 games, often in the cleanup spot. L30: .323 average, 4 HR, 18 RBI. 63% rostered.

• Deep leagues: Carlos Narvaez. He’s grabbed the Red Sox primary catcher job; PT is more like 2 of 3 starts but he often bats cleanup and is hot lately: .381 last 7 days. L30: .265 average, 14.6% BB%, .792 OPS. 21% rostered.

First Base:

• Shallow leagues: Nick Kurtz. Unbelievably, just 54% rostered. The A’s rookie is raking (and whiffing too much), and in the short term is on a home stand where temps will hit 100°. L30: .238, 7 8 HR, 16% barrel (he homered again as I wrote this). A nice, symmetrical way to view Kurtz: he has 100th percentile bat speed (77.7)—and 1st percentile strikeout rate (34.3%). I’ll deal with the K’s and .240ish average for his 40-homer pace.

• Deep leagues: Nolan Schanuel. Bats 2nd every day, great contact guy with middle infielder-type power, but showing signs of juice? L30: .279, 5 HR and threw in 2 SB. He has increased bat speed from 65 mph to 68—though that’s still only 8th percentile. Not 8-0, just 8. But he bats top 3 in Angels LU every game and paces for 16/6. 18% rostered.

Second Base:

• Shallow leagues: Otto Lopez — batting 3rd every day for a sneaky Marlins offense, good contact skills with a little pop and speed. L30: .284, 4 HR, 4 SB — 25/25 pace. Also SS eligible. 46% rostered.

• Deep leagues: Colt Keith — could finally be happening? L30: .290, 15.5% barrel%, 52.5% HH%, 91% z-con%. Won’t face lefties and no speed but leads off and mashes vs. righties. Has 1B eligibility too. 14% rostered.

Shortstop:

• Shallow leagues: Trevor Story is on 🔥 . L30: .330, 6 HR, 5 SB, 25 RBI. Still chasing (42%) and whiffing (16% SwStr) too much but he still has dynamic power/speed and actually healthy—already more PAs than last two seasons combined. 40% rostered.

• Deep leagues: Brooks Lee — boring deeper play, good contact hitter with 20-ish HR potential, not much speed. L30: .319 with 4 HR. Also 2B/3B eligible. 19% rostered.

Third Base

• Shallow leagues: Addison Barger. Built like a bodybuilder and strikes the ball like one. Elite bat speed (75.8, 95th percentile), barrels (14.7%), average (93.7) and max EV (116.5, both top 4%)—and pulls ball in the air a ton (23.8%). Near 30% K% last 30 but use that as a buying opportunity: still hitting .270 with 50% HH% in that time. Also has OF eligibility. 44% rostered.

• Deep leagues: Ernie Clement. Barger’s teammate couldn’t be more different (“Different than Addison” sounds like a 90s alternative rock band or song): excellent contact rates, questionable thump. He has ONE barrel L30—but a .333 average and 95% z-con%. It’s a 12/12 type profile with a .283 average over his last 815 MLB PA’s. Fantasy glue guy who plays every day and qualifies at 1B/2B/SS too. 37% rostered.

Outfield:

• Shallow leagues: Definitely add Kyle Stowers (51% rostered) where available: 15 HR, 45 RBI, .282 before Saturday—when he added his 16th dinger. His 19% barrel% is 5th among all OF; he’s closer to Riley Greene than you think, right down to the 29% K%. But few hit the ball harder. Cam Smith: just drafted last year, the kid is a stud and should already be owned in all leagues. Now hitting .292, with a 1.267 OPS in July; crushes lefties and solid (.286 BA) vs RHP. Batting cleanup, runs a little and has 3B eligibility. His GB% holds the power back but it has improved from 49% to 46% to 16% since May. If he keeps it under 40%, look out. 58% rostered. Jo Adell - former top prospect is on an absolute tear, 12 HR since June 1, up to 19 total already. Huge raw power and has really improved the contact and strikeout rates (.254 BA, 23.6% K%). 55% rostered. Wilyer Abreu - doesn’t play vs lefties but hitting .333 with 4 HR (.405 wOBA) in 16 GP since return from IL. Will chip in a few SB. 58% rostered.

• Deep leagues: Ramon Laureano: hitting .279 overall with 10 HR, 11% barrel and 4 SB; with O’Neill back from IL check the PT but TON likely is primary DH (in 2 games since TON returned they have alternated RF/DH). 16% rostered. Tyler Freeman: Elite contact rates, leading off, plays in Coors, no power, runs with abandon. L30: .338, 8 SB, 12.6% BB vs 6.3% K%. ZERO HR. 15% rostered. Austin Hays breaks down, not out, every few weeks but when healthy has done major damage: .371 vs lefties, .284 overall and 7 HR, 29 RBI in only 141 AB’s. 17% rostered. Also consider Dane Myers for average and speed (.291, 13 SB in just 59 GP). 3% rostered.

Starting Pitcher

• Shallow leagues: Lucas Giolito: not his old overwhelming self but his last 5 starts he’s gone 6, 6, 6, 7, 7.2 IP with 4 wins and a total of 3 earned allowed. He’s not THAT good but has pitched efficiently and minimized homers, his bugaboo in recent years. 48% rostered. Jose Soriano: the sinker is working, which means long outings, few HR (67% GB), some WHIP risk (1.42). L30: 2.88 SIERA is 11th best. 39% rostered.

• Deep leagues: Brandon Walter: Astros lab is cooking again. The lefty was lit up Thursday in Coors but his pitches weren’t moving normally, as often happens to even great pitchers at altitude. Had 3 QS in last 4 before that and 6+ IP last 5 GS; 2.98 SIERA (14th) and 1.18 WHIP L30. ELITE control: if qualified, his 1.4% BB rate would easily top the majors (Skubal at 3.4% is current leader). Two pitches that miss bats (FF + CH both 15%+ SwStr ). His 1.56 HR/9 and 20% HR/FB seems unlucky as he also keeps the ball on the ground (52% GB%). 22% rostered. (SENT DOWN Sunday FOR NO REASON)—> Chad Patrick: The latest Milwaukee SP success story, he’s had a few stumbles recently (4.85 ERA L30—before a decent 5 IP, 2 ER start Saturday); but 12.4 K/9 and 3.27 SIERA in that time says he’s been a bit unfortunate. Gets Nats next week. 38% rostered.

• Joe Boyle - just called up by the Rays. Dominant stuff, issue has always been control. Last 65 IP in AAA: 1.66 ERA, .92 WHIP, 86 K. On Sunday he two-hit the Twins with 7 K in 5 IP. Looks like he’ll follow an opener, increasing win chances. Add him even in shallow leagues.

• Mike Burrows: the forgotten Pirate prospect, lost amidst the hype for Chandler, et al., Burrows has a 3.00 ERA L30 backed by a 3.05 SIERA (18th best) and 10.44 K/9. Overall 17% K-BB%. Changeup is his best (only?) out pitch (26% SwStr). Wins will be scarce but if he can go 5+ IP consistently, this could be a solid, matchup-based bench streamer type. 3% rostered.

Relief Pitcher

• All leagues: There aren’t a ton of interesting options who are not highly owned. Ronny Henriquez: 3 straight saves for a surging Marlins squad that tends to win by close margins; he seems to have displaced Calvin “Dr” Faucher. BUT Ronny is sometimes used in the 8th, as he was Saturday. Manager is not trustworthy but the skills are: 33% K to just 3.7% BB L30, 17% SwStr overall. Easily best fastball in this ‘pen (112 Stuff+). Has had poor HR luck (1.5 HR/9) but even projections see a 3.70-3.90 ERA talent. That’s workable for saves, and skills look better than that. 25% rostered. In NFBC 12-team OCs he’s only 7% rostered.

• Shelby Miller: a Yahoo special with just 39% rostership despite having the closing job on lock for a solid team, but more than that, the skills are excellent: 2.04 ERA, .99 WHIP, 15% SwStr, 20% K-BB%. Last 30 it’s an even better 28% K-BB% and 2.03 SIERA. Grab wherever available (not in OCs, where he’s 99% rostered).

• Grant Taylor: Another emerging closer on a bad team, Taylor is a top 100 prospect who zipped through the minors (1.01 era & 12.5 K/9 in AA). He just snagged his third save in last two weeks and on the season, holds a 14.4% SwStr and 28.9% K%. Don’t mind the 4.38 ERA (2.47 SIERA). Most impressive is the 7% walk rate, which is plus for any reliever but especially one that averages 99.2 mph on his fastball. Also watch his news for next year—as a second rounder with a $1.7M signing bonus, he could well transition back to starting at some point (walk rates in minors were not prohibitive). 9% rostered; 72% in OCs.

Song Of The Week

I wasn’t quite hip enough to be into Can, the German krautrock pioneers, in high school. Later on a girlfriend caught me up. It didn’t end well with her but I remain indebted for the introduction to this band, which was well ahead of its time. Headphones (and maybe a gummy) recommended: