Pulling A Belichick — Drop Emmett Sheehan?

Plus: Intentional Walk Leaders and The Most Feared Batters in the Majors

Emmett Sheehan got me thinking about Bill Belichick recently.

It feels like a century ago, but before Belichick became hypnotized by a college student, he was regarded as one of the most cutthroat team architects in professional sports history. He famously traded or cut a star “too soon” rather than too late. Richard Seymour, Ty Law, hell, even Tom Brady fell victim to this philosophy.¹

As that list illustrates, moving a player too soon isn’t always the right call. But decisions made under uncertainty aren’t supposed to be easy. When we get these calls right it’s an ego boost at least, and at best can be a game changer for real and fantasy rosters.

During draft season, Sheehan was taken at the head of the hyped young starting pitcher class, and it’s a vast understatement to say he’s been frustrating to roster. The results are uneven, underlying metrics provide mixed messages, and he basically never gets a two-start week due to the Dodgers’ six-man rotation.

Sheehan’s on my bench this week but would it be crazy to… drop him?

Returning from injury last year, Sheehan sparkled with a 2.82 ERA, .97 WHIP and 10.92 K/9 over 15 appearances (73.1 IP). He did allow a 10.8 barrel% but kept the homers to a manageable 1.06 per 9 after an ugly 1.52 mark during his rookie debut in 2023.

Sheehan was easy to like in drafts. He flashed plus pitches to handle both lefties and righties, pitched deep into games late last season, and plays for the team projected tops in wins. Even with an expected six-man rotation dimming his volume outlook—something many of us may have underestimated—he seemed primed for a big 2026.

Here’s the problem. I made a number of FOMO picks in one of my last drafts, including Sheehan, who I took while Misiorowski, Schlittler, and Burns were still on the board. (I also drafted Nolan McLean two rounds before Sheehan; that deserves its own article).

But we weren’t alone: Sheehan (ADP: 91) was drafted ahead of Misiorowski (104), Schlittler (106), and Burns (116) in March Main Event drafts at the NFBC. (McLean: 74.9).

By the way, score one for the 12-team owners, who had all four youths clustered between ADP 110-112.5 in March OC drafts (McLean: 86.3).

It was a consequential decision point: Mis and Schlittz are leading Cy Young candidates, Burns “lags” behind at 2.6 fWAR (ninth in the majors), while Sheehan…²

Well, Sheehan’s put together a 5.32 ERA and 1.30 WHIP despite a still-strong 10.1 K/9. He has three wins in 14 starts despite the Dodgers’ backing, and in the last 30 days it’s a 6.14 ERA. After his worst start of the year Sunday—6 ER and 11 baserunners in 3.1 IP—Dave Roberts said, “he'll get a start this next one, and we'll see where it takes us.” That endorsement is not ringing.

The ERA estimators say Sheehan’s been a little unlucky, but they can’t figure him out either: 4.61 FIP, 4.02 xERA, and 3.56 SIERA. He’s striking out 26.2% and walking 6.9% of batters for a quite good 19.3 K-BB%—the latter metric would rank 20th if Sheehan qualified, right next to, yep, McLean.

The Ks are down four points so it’s not the elite 23 K-BB% of last year, but those components don’t point to a 5 ERA arm, either.

However, homers (1.86 per 9) have crushed Sheehan, especially relative to last year’s 1.06/9. He’d rank third-worst in the majors there if he qualified. It’s not just damage, however, as Sheehan’s also allowing three more hits per 9, a massive leap (9.03 vs 6.04 H/9 last season).

There is also a velocity issue. Sheehan is sitting 94.6 mph on the four seamer after averaging 95.5 last season (and 95.3 in ‘23, pre-injury). The stuff models have docked him appropriately, and they also think his secondaries are a little worse. It’s a 98 Stuff+ overall, down five points, and the changeup rates 103, a big drop from 115 last season.

But despite a positive 108 Location+ overall, the biggest issue we can find relates to command.

When Sheehan debuted, his four seamer seemed to blast out of his hand like a laser rising to the top of the zone. It was even better last year as he honed the command, and heat maps show a concentrated fastball attack area in 2025:

Compare that to this season:

That’s Meatball City. Maybe the ABS zone is squeezing him, but add the lower velocity to these locations and it’s not difficult to divine why Sheehan—a fly ball pitcher who’s allowed a 10+ barrel% every season—is getting hammered for damage and hits. It’s a .435 wOBA and .691 SLG against the four seamer, a huge jump from .318 and .436 last year. The fastball’s been tagged for 11 homers, more than twice last year’s five—in 5.2 fewer innings.

While the four seamer has dropped into the middle of the zone, Sheehan’s changeup has converged in that direction from the bottom. It’s not allowing dingers, but the changeup has a .281 BA against, almost double the elite .146 mark last year. His slider is missing bats (39.7 whiff%) but it’s the only pitch not allowing at least a .277 BA.

The four seam and change were Sheehan’s counter to lefties, and while he’s hardly dominated righties either, southpaws are tagging him for a .261 BA while slugging .529 (.363 wOBA). Those numbers were .165, .309, and .262 for lefty opponents, respectively, in 2025.

The velocity is another mystery. Sheehan’s heater is down a tick overall but even stranger is the velo between starts, and even between innings of the same start.

He’s averaged as low as 93.4 and as high as 95.9 between games, and we’ve seen similar spreads within starts. He’s begun games sitting 96 in the first and 92 by the fourth inning. That smells like a mechanical issue, if not an injury of some sort.

We probably aren’t on the brink of dropping Sheehan, as the upside is simply too high in fantasy. But he was cut in seven OC leagues last Sunday and we could see more owners bail during this weekend’s FAAB run, especially if he struggles against the punchless Padres (though he’ll likely dominate since I benched him, as did 39% of his OC owners). We may not be Belichick just yet, but given Roberts’ comments, another rough outing Sunday may have every Sheehan owner scrambling for a replacement.

**

Quick & Dirty Fantasy Insights: Intentional Walk Leaders

This is pretty dumb, but what if you had to draft hitters for roto based on a single metric? Home runs would be a decent choice but may miss some high batting average and balanced producers. I’d probably default to wOBA or wRC+, although both are heavily impacted by walk rate and OBP, and wouldn’t capture speed guys. Besides, many may not know what represents a median wOBA (.315), let alone a great one (.370+).

What about an unusual choice: intentional walk rate? At minimum, it reveals the batters that opponents fear the most. If you showed up unprepared for a draft, you could pick a decent fantasy team using only this list—at least for the first few rounds:

Schwarber, Witt and Rice are among the next 10 with 3 IBB each. It’s a combination of the best mashers plus some standout hitters in bad lineups (Ramirez, Trout, Edwards). Why pitch to J Ram when you can walk him and face Daniel Schneemann?

Although Rice, Yordan, Wood and Kurtz are four of the top five bats on the FanGraphs Player Rater, I’m not suggesting intentional walks as a serious drafting rubric—but it does have a modicum of relevance. Here are the intentional walk leaders from 2021-25:

Again, that’s a pretty strong list (and another indictment of Cleveland’s batters). Despite recent downturns due to age and/or injury, we perennially drafted guys like Devers, Seager, and Machado in the second or third rounds.

It’s also interesting how much the intentional walk has declined on a macro level. Sacrificing an out 60% of the time is simply less valuable than allowing a hit 30%, another baserunner 40%, or a home run 10% of the time.

We can see the strategic shift on a basic level by sorting the highest intentional walk seasons this century. Judge’s 36 last year represents the only season this decade to place in the top 37 IBB seasons since 2001:

Another way to put it: Vladimir Guerrero Sr. had four IBB seasons in the top 30 while Junior has none, despite a better career walk rate (10.3 to 8.1%) and much better chase rate for Vlad Jr. (27.2 to 38.9%).³ Then again, Junior has 27 homers since the beginning of 2025 and just four this season. His old dad never had an issue lifting the ball.

1. And yes, I know this was actually pioneered by a baseball man, Branch Rickey, a good 60 years before Belichick became so revered for it. Hey, I’m going for eyeballs here.

2. Fan Duel literally has Mis and Schlittler with the shortest CY odds in the NL and AL, respectively. Mis is minus-160! Burns is fifth in NL CY odds.

3. Plate discipline data is incomplete for Vlad Sr.’s career. That number got worse as he aged but anyone who watched knows he was the freest of free swingers. Wouldn’t you if you could maintain an 80 contact% and golf dongs off balls in the dirt?