The double agents. The silent killers. The relative who asks to stay with you during a difficult time in his life and starts smoking darts in your basement while drinking your treasured bottle of 20-year old Scotch.
The conceit here is simple, if unoriginal: identifying the players on our fantasy rosters who are quietly sabotaging our teams. Whether drafted due to good past performance or picked up after a hot start earlier this season, these players sneakily stick in our lineups for weeks or even months, doing damage to our stats and preventing upgrades.
We are all susceptible to first impression bias: player X was great in April, so his silent but deadly shortcomings since escape our notice. Similarly, we have favorites from draft season: I just knew from hours of research that Player Y was undervalued, so it’s natural to assume they have or will meet those expectations. Confirmation bias is a bitch.
This exercise is especially pertinent for season-long roto leagues, where the game is steady accumulation of stats. But it’s important to root out the quiet roster killers in any format.
Hat tip for the headline here to the guys at the Bubba & The Bloom podcast, Ryan Bloomfield and KC Bubba, who dubbed such players “Jean Seguras”—i.e. a once-useful asset who later in his career annually served as a sneaky albatross to fantasy baseball lineups.^
So let’s dive in, identifying the “Segura All Stars” at each position along with some honorable mentions and ideas for replacements. Hopefully this helps you justify moving on for upgrades. We only have a third of a season remaining and every home run and strikeout matters.
^ You should definitely be listening to their pod and following them on Twitter, @bdentrek and @RyanBHQ
Catcher: Ryan Jeffers
Ah, the roster saboteur triple whammy: Jeffers was coveted as a sneaky second catcher in drafts, he was picked up after a hot start, and managers had warm and fuzzies towards him because he helped folks win leagues with a pop up 14 homers last season.
The 20th catcher drafted in March, Jeffers was playing so well in March and April that the Twins started using him like Adley Rutschman lite: he DH’d when not catching, giving him every day playing time—a rare and valuable advantage at catcher. Fantasy managers took notice, celebrating their late Jeffers pick or rushing to add him in single-catcher leagues.
However, neither the performance nor playing time held steady. For example, check out his plate appearances and wOBA by month:
Mar./Apr: 105 PA, 17% K, .405 wOBA
May: 95 PA, 30.5% K, .351 wOBA
June: 64 PA, 13% K, .217 wOBA
July: 50 PA, 16% K, .311 wOBA
Despite the high strikeouts, Jeffers was still productive in May with 7 homers. But his underlying numbers always screamed regression and he lagged late that month and into June. He got the K% under control, but just stopped producing (2 HR since June 1). He’s been the 21st best catcher in the last 30 days while only playing every other day.
Yes, he was great early but it’s time to pocket the profit and move on from Jeffers in 12 team (or fewer) leagues. In 15s you’re probably holding but even there it’s worth checking for a Kyle Higashioka or Bo Naylor.
Other “Seguras” at C: Luis Campusano (missed time and Kyle Higashioka has taken the number one job; Campy 43rd at C last 30); S Murphy (losing time to D’Arnaud, 42nd at C L30, he missed time early and it feels like a lost season for him); David Fry (53rd at C L30, the clock struck 12 at the All Star Game and now there’s a pumpkin standing at the plate wearing a “Fry” jersey).
Replacements: In 12s check the wire for Tyler Stephenson (.363 wOBA L30, 29% rostered on Yahoo), Shea Langeliers (5 HR L30, 37%), Kyle Higashioka (6 HR, .433 wOBA L30, 10%) or Austin Wells (5 HR, .427 wOBA L30, 5%); the last two may be available in 15s.
1B: Ryan Mountcastle
Mounty got off to a strong start with 4 HR and a .359 wOBA in Mar./April (8th among qualified 1B). It’s dipped every month since, from .359 to .323 to .319 to .238 in July. He’s also batting lower in the order now, limiting his run potential.
Here’s the problem: Mountcastle has pulled ONE fly ball in a month (1.5%); his season rate is 16% of fly balls pulled, which itself is low. It’s difficult to hit for power, even with above average exit velocities, when hitting to center and opposite fields in what is now a pitchers’ park. He’s also losing some ABs versus tough righties, with teammate Ryan O’Hearn really thriving (Mountcastle and O’Hearn have the same PAs L30). Mountcastle will hit for average but with his pull rate, spot in the bottom third of the order, and reduced PT, we can do better in shallow leagues.
Others receiving votes: Matt Olson (he just hasn’t gotten going at any point and it doesn’t look like he will (.197 wOBA in July—that’s below Ty France who was just DFA’d); Paul Goldschmidt (despite picking up the power a bit, the strikeouts remain high and the BA remains low, .287 July wOBA is 26th at 1B)—I would bench them if possible in shallow leagues.
Replacements: In 15s Mountcastle is likely still a hold as a CI. In shallower formats I’d be looking to replace with his teammate, the aforementioned O’Hearn (.361 July wOBA, 45% on Yahoo); the Michaels, Toglia (big power and the BA should improve, .383 July wOBA is 5th at 1B, 26%)—and Busch (.355 July wOBA, 60%); Juan Yepez (.445 July wOBA is 1st, 32%); and Rowdy Tellez (5 HR, .400 July wOBA, 11%).
2B: Gleyber Torres
In this bizarro All Star universe, second base is equivalent to the real world’s shortstop—so many potential options at this wasteland position. Torres has perhaps been the most depressing and damaging of the second basemen drafted in the top 100. He’s the ultimate confirmation bias exemplar. We dug in and decided he was 90% of Ozzie Albies, who was being drafted in the top 25. Early in draft season Gleyber was drafted in the 90s and by March it was the 60s; so many valuable options were passed over to take him.
Here are Torres’ wRC+ by month (overall offensive production scaled where 100 is average):
Mar./Apr.: 64
May: 114
June: 92
July: 126
It’s 94 for the season, after posting 117 and 123 the past two seasons. He’s basically 25-30% worse than what you (and the projections) hoped for: a solid ~24 HR, ~12 SB bat with a .260 BA and plentiful counting stats in a great lineup. Instead, he’s hit .232 over 401 PA with 10 HR, 4 SB; a 14/6/70/52 pace. That’s a slow-acting poison. Even in May, his best fantasy month, it was a .240 BA with 4 HR and 1 SB. Ho hum.
The potential cause—Gleyber was hit on the hand by a pitch in the season’s first series but has played through it—is nice to know but doesn’t help our bottom lines. His barrel, hard hit and exit velocities are all down year over year. Gleyber did recently homer in consecutive games to get to 10 total homers. Perhaps it’s taken him this long to recover from that HBP and the recent home runs mean he’ll round into form, but in 12s at least I’d still prefer taking a shot on some of the below options.
Others receiving votes: Marcus Semien, drafted as the second pure 2B, is 7th at the position but his metrics look mostly normal and he’s hitting .304 with 4 HR in July; Nico Hoerner, drafted in the top 75 for BA and speed, is kind of doing neither (.258, 14 SB)—empty .288 July BA with 0 SB; A Gimenez, drafted at adp ~100 for a Hoerner-lite profile, but it’s just a .244 BA with 14 SB; Albies was the first pure 2B taken and he ranks 16th at 2B—he’s now on the IL for 8 weeks minimum so that’s an easy drop everywhere; and Thairo Estrada, see below.
Replacements: There aren’t many in 15s! Again, in those deep leagues Torres is a hold; but consider Xavier Edwards, recently called up by Miami and hitting over .380 with 5 SB in just 78 PA (17% rostered Yahoo). In 12s I’d potentially add Edwards; Colt Keith, who has settled in after a rough start, with 6 HR, .288 BA and 32 runs + RBI last 30 (60% Yahoo); Zach Gelof has been mostly bad but is at least hitting for power (5 HR) and running (4 SB) last 30 (45%); Max Schuemann is showing great plate discipline, BA and OBP skills for Oakland and is ranked 15th overall in roto L30 (.354, 19 runs)—he’s also SS/OF eligible on Yahoo (51%); Willi Castro offers even more flexibility (2B/3B/SS/OF) with solid average (.262) and more SB (10) while lately leading off for Minnesota (76% Yahoo); and Luis Rengifo is the Castro profile but better, hitting over .300 with 22 SB (79%).
3B: Ke’Bryan Hayes
Hayes was a semi-popular breakout pick after a strong 2023 second half saw him finally lifting the ball and hitting for power; drafted as the 14th 3B ahead of Bohm, M Garcia, McMahon. Hayes started strong with a .360 wOBA early, which has dropped over his last 250 PA to a pitiful .247. Once a BA standout, he’s hitting .240 over a mind-numbing 317 PA with middling power (3 HR) and blah speed (8 SB). Ranked 36th among 3B behind part timers O Cabrera and A Toro. Abraham Toro! Hayes is still 98% owned in 15s, 78% of NFBC 12s, and even 34% of Yahoo leagues. How?
Others receiving votes: Jake Burger (seemed destined for 30+ bombs but it hasn’t materialized, consistent 25%+ Ks keep the BA around .230)—we can do better nearly everywhere; Nolan Arenado, just a depressing season of nagging injuries and meager production (14 HR pace)—in 15s hold as a CI but drop everywhere else; Max Muncy, productive when he played but sat vs LHP and it’s been over 2 months on the IL with no end in sight—easy dump.
Replacements: People complain about 3B but it’s been sneaky solid (also maybe I have a lot of Maikel Garcia). Josh Smith has been a godsend for both Texas and fantasy managers providing BA, speed and counting stats—he doesn’t hit it hard but rides good contact skills (87% z-contact) and 23% line drives while batting third lately to go with SS/OF eligibility too (69% Yahoo); W Castro again; L Rengifo; for more power, C Keith; in a little rut lately, Mark Vientos has flashed a plus hit tool and some power (4 HR, 15 RBI last 30) (61%); and while the BA is dreadful so far, it’s still worth betting on a potential high end outcome for Noelvi Marte, as shown by 2 HR & 2 SB in three weeks of action (25%).
Shortstop: Dansby Swanson and Thairo Estrada
This has been the best hitting position, bar none, but these two have been such abominations you’d be forgiven for not noticing the wider trend if you roster them. Dansby and Thairo have produced almost identical sub-.220 BA over a suffocating 340+ PA each. It’s likely if you “set ‘em and forgot ‘em,” they’re the reason you’re bottom-5 in your league in batting average. Estrada isn’t running at all (1 SB) after 20+ in limited time the prior two seasons; now he’s losing PT to Tyler Fitzgerald (a worthy shot to take as a replacement). Swanson has never been a BA standout but he’s consistently hit for solid power and hit ~.250. Now it’s a wretched .218?! With a measly 9 HR. He’s hitting too many grounders (50%) and not running much (7 SB). You’re hoping he gets to 15/12—a Pyrrhic victory if it happens as that average is losing you a category. Neither Swanson nor Estrada are in the top third of their lineups or providing solid runs or RBI.
Root them out!
Others receiving votes: Bo Bichette is an even worse offender than the two above (ranks 37th at SS) but hopefully in shallow leagues you’ve already dropped him as he’s been injured a couple times and is once again dealing with a calf injury—worth noting he’s returned negative $9 value; Hoerner (again, see 2B above); JP Crawford, who was pacing for a near-repeat of last season’s surprise 19 HR—but it’s a .204 BA, .645 OPS annnnnd… he’s injured again. Cut.
Replacements: A few players mentioned above—Rengifo, Smith, Castro—all qualify at SS and would immediately upgrade your team; Zach Neto has been really good, ranking the same as A Volpe in almost 100 fewer PA (51% Yahoo, a crime); check on Ceddanne Rafaela, the plucky Red Sox with speed and power—and OF eligible as well (69%); if Masyn Winn ran more he’d be a dude, as it is he’s at least a BA help (.281) and scores runs atop the Cardinals lineup (36%); in deep leagues (maybe all leagues soon enough), Tyler Fitzgerald, who recently homered in 5 straight for SF and has wrested a starting job from Estrada while hitting for BA and running (98th percentile sprint) (37%); X Edwards, see 2B, also qualifies at SS.
Outfield
Adolis Garcia
Over his three relevant fantasy seasons, Garcia went from power/speed menace (58 HR/41 SB in 2022-23) to a more stagnant power hitter and run producer (39 HR, 217 runs + RBI, just 9 SB last year). Now he’s pacing for 25/14 while batting .212 over 404 PA. That’s Schwarberesque (though he’s actually hitting above .235). Adolis is actually making more contact this year, but his FB%, barrel%, hard hit% and pull rate are all down. If you’re in a max EV league he hit the hardest ball of his career (116), so there’s that. Like Gleyber, he’s had a hot run this week but even a blind squirrel is right twice a day. But the batting average is a killer. In 15s you’re holding and just hoping he goes on a crazy power tear. In 12s I’d drop for Butler or Castro/Rengifo/Smith, but probably not the other guys mentioned below.
Cody Bellinger
The ex-MVP had a hugely impactful bounce back last season, vaulting into the top 60 in overall ADP. Well now he’s barely a top 60 outfielder. Yes he’s missed a little time and is hitting .269 but…that’s about it. After hitting .300 and going 20/20 it’s now a 13 HR/9 SB pace. Yes, pace, he isn’t even at 10 HR yet. Belli’s power production didn’t totally make sense last season (6% barrel%). That’s unchanged, the launch angle isn’t much different—but his HR/FB% has been cut almost in half to 7.6% (MLB average: 11%). And the Cubs aren’t running as often. He’s also dealing with an injury. In 15s he’s a likely hold especially qualifying also at 1B. But in shallow leagues what are you hoping for? There are better shots to take.
Michael Harris II
Harris got pushed up draft boards as the offseason went on (a bit like Gleyber)—starting in the 40s and ending in the 20s. He’d hit almost .300 each of his first two seasons with nearly 20/20, so you could see why folks liked the profile. Harris has been injured now for over a month, but even in the 278 PA we did get, he was cursed like most of the Braves lineup, batting just .250 with 5 HR/8 SB. He looked on track to return by early August but has experienced setbacks in his recovery so it’s unclear when he’ll be back. If you have an IL spot he’s worth holding, but if not? With the latest setback plus his middling performance he’s a drop candidate even in 15s and especially in 12s.
Others receiving votes: Corbin Carroll has probably already sent you to therapy after being drafted in the top 6 overall and returning a steady .210 BA with almost no power—he’s basically the costliest rabbit in history, providing 20 SB; Randy Arozarena has been the 40th best OF (44 overall ADP), thanks to a Carrollesque .211 BA—he’s at least providing power and has been hitting much better over the last month so I’d hold him everywhere, though I don’t like the move to Seattle, the worst park for righty hitters; Daulton Varsho, taken much later but still coveted as an OF4-5 with upside, he’s provided some power/speed but with a .204 BA. Sense a theme here?
Replacements: I am really high on Lawrence Butler, a late-ish blooming, toolsy A’s OF now leading off with a 12% barrel%, 50% HH and potential to do THIS: .386, 9 HR, 3 SB, 42 R + RBI—that’s right, in his last 30 days he’s almost matched Belli’s whole season (72% Yahoo); Jackson Chourio, the 20 yr old top prospect, has started to put it together with .325, 3/4 HR/SB L30 (78%); Jarred Kelenic leads off for Atlanta with power/speed (46%); Jesus Sanchez saves, batting .284 with 5 HR L30 (5%). Deeper leagues: Matt Vierling, playing every day while being productive for Detroit (.316 BA L14) (26%); Toglia, mentioned for 1B, if you need power (26%); Yepez for BA (32%); Schuemann (51%); Fitzgerald/Rafaela for power/speed and SS eligible (37%/68%).
Starting Pitcher
Zach Eflin
Drafted as a top 25 starter following a breakout 2023, Eflin hasn’t been terrible—but he’s not been good either. The problem is many expected him to hold the gains he made in 2023, thinking the Rays sprinkled their pitcher pixie dust on him. But the career 16% K-BB Eflin, after posting a 23% mark last year, is sitting at… 16%. After allowing 8 hits/9 last season, the career 9.2 guy is at…9.4 now. You get the idea (regression). The 3.91 SIERA tells us the 4.04 ERA is mostly deserved. That’s 19 starts in your rotation with an ERA over 4. He also won 16 games last season for a much better Rays team; it’s 5 Ws now. Eflin’s solid enough, in deep 12s and 15s I’d hold, but in the majority of leagues? There’s limited upside here compared to more robust wire options.
Kevin Gausman
I get it, he’s been a no doubt top 8-10 SP for three seasons heading into 2024. You likely paid a top 30 overall price. At least you’re getting elite strikeouts though, right? Not quite: for the first time since 2018 it’s under 10 K/9, in fact it’s under a K/inning. Gausman has always given up relatively hard contact for an ace, but he missed enough bats to avoid too much damage. Now? His 1.3 HR/9 is bottom 20, he’s giving up 11% barrels and the xERA—which accounts for quality of contact—sits at 5.12, third worst among qualifiers. In 15s and deep 12s you likely have no better options, but I’d be careful versus good offenses, while in shallower 12s and less you can do better.
Others receiving votes: Gausman’s teammate Jose Berrios is tied with him for third worst xERA at 5.12 and doesn’t offer the strikeouts to offset it—I’m benching in 15s and deep 12s and dropping in most leagues; let’s do all the Blue Jays, as Chris Bassitt hasn’t been able to pull off his kitchen sink approach with the length and efficacy of recent years—even the good games are mostly blah; Mackenzie Gore has a ton of potential and was even pitching to it early in the season, but it’s unraveled with a 5.13 June and 7.47 July ERA—the walks are a little high but mostly it’s a 9.5 hits/9, a mysterious problem as he doesn’t give up a lot of hard contact (the team defense is not good), but you can’t absorb these huge 6-7 ER outings on a Nats team with middling win opportunities.
Replacements: In deeper leagues, check to see if Luis Ortiz is available. He lives on good control, reducing damage, and length and it’s worked to the tune of the 9th most valuable pitcher L30 (35% Yahoo); Michael Wacha has rounded into form lately, even getting some Ks (54%); Tyler Phillips is a young Phillies arm who’s looked good so far in 2 starts (2.81 ERA, 3.04 xFIP)—not a lot of K upside but for short term a solid stream for wins (7%); Spencer Schwellenbach: yes he sounds like an SS agent (hey the initials too), but this is an elite prospect for the Braves with pristine control (4% BB) and whiffs too (25% K, 11 K last start) (40%); and River Ryan, another alliterative all star with a good org (Dodgers), 5 good pitches, and 2 good starts so far, including 0 ER & 8 K vs Houston (20%).
For shallower leagues here are pitchers showing strong skills, all owned less than 70% on Yahoo:
Luis Severino isn’t flashy but he’s been very solid, going 6+ IP in 8 of his last 9 starts with 4 wins in that time (57%);
Robbie Ray just had a killer debut for SF vs the Dodgers, showing higher velo and his same old whiff ability—we know the upside of the former Cy winner, he’s the priority add here (56%);
Erick Fedde has been consistently good all season, pitching to a 2.98 ERA & 1.11 whip, and he’s a top 35 pitcher L30—the problem is wins on the White Sox, but he is likely to be traded to a much better team soon (70%);
Jameson Taillon is similar to Fedde, the Ks are even less but he’s crafty, avoids damage, and goes deep enough to get wins if the Cubs bullpen cooperates—also a trade candidate (60%);
finally, check to see if Clayton Kershaw or Branson Pfaadt are on your wire, they’re both just under 80% on Yahoo and have obvious upside.
Relievers: Evan Phillips
Phillips posted 124.1 innings of a 1.59 ERA across 2022-2023 with .58 HR/9. Just absurdly good. He’s run into problems recently, since returning from the IL in May—especially versus lefties. After suppressing homers so well for two seasons his rate has almost tripled to 1.47 HR/9. It’s been five HR allowed in July. Always in more of a 70/30 closer split for LA, he’s been moved to lower leverage situations at least short term. The Dodgers are also likely to add a lockdown closer at the trade deadline. In 15s you’re holding hoping he works back to the 9th inning mix, but in 12s you’ve got to stick and move and maximize those P spots.
Others receiving votes: Camilo Doval has been dogwater all season after a dominant 2023: even in July, his best month, the whip is almost 1.8—but you likely have to hold given the scarcity of certain closers; Paul Sewald has been extremely wobbly all season, alternating a couple clean outings with a blowup or shaky save—he’s just not missing bats, with a 8.51 K/9 down hugely from a career 10.7; the D Backs also just acquired AJ Puk (see below).
Replacements: Let’s start with Puk, who failed in his early season bid to convert back to starting—but has been lights out since returning to the pen, to wit, in his last 30 days: 0.00 ERA, .42 whip with 20 Ks in 13 IP (number 7 reliever)—there’s a chance he steals Sewald’s job, but it’s speculative so I’d closely watch the usage in Arizona (20% Yahoo); Hunter Harvey looked poised to capitalize on his acquisition by KC and still has a shot to close if he gets over a new (minor, they say) back strain (42%); Jeff Hoffman is the best add possible; he’s been awesome for Philly for a second straight year, with a 1.05 ERA and 59 K in 43 IP—by skills one of the best relievers in baseball, he doesn’t get all the save chances but helps you everywhere else so much that I prefer him to Phillips or Doval (20%).
EDIT: The Phillies just traded for Carlos Estevez, which soils 2 situations—he likely gets the majority but not all the saves at his new home, and the Angels’ next up is unclear; it’s Luis Garcia for now, until they trade him then it’s likely /maybe Ben Joyce, who literally throws 104 but mysteriously doesn’t get many Ks, though he’s on a 12 IP scoreless streak (11%). Still love Hoffman’s skills if you want great ratios, Ks and maybe 2 saves ROS.
More speculative for deeper leagues: Tyler Ferguson (7%), a near unknown for the A’s who just came up—they need a closer after Mason Miller’s injury—had 16 saves in the minors so at least watchlist him; it may be a shared situation with Lucas Erceg (8%); Andrew Nardi with Miami is another dart throw, his top line numbers look rough but he has much better peripherals and if/when they trade Tanner Scott, Nardi may be next up (4%); Robert Garcia with the Nats, rumors swirl they’ll trade Finnegan, and Garcia has the wipeout stuff to be a closer (1%).