Swinging, Fast and Slow

(Over) Reacting To Early 2026 Changes In Bat Speed

Baseball analysts and fantasy players are generally still wrestling with the significance of bat speed. That won’t stop us from examining some notable early changes in the metric as we fish for early-season signals.

As with its more widely accepted cousin exit velocity, we do know that more bat speed is generally better: faster swings lead to harder contact and higher EV and hence, more damage. Research from Baseball Savant showed the following average results when comparing “Fast Swings” (those 75 mph+) to all other swings:¹

That’s pretty stark! The next time some older friend or relative bemoans guys swinging out of their shoes, send them this little nugget (maybe cut it off after “SLG”).

A couple other housekeeping notes. The metrics measured here are filtered to include only “competitive swings”; efforts like check swings and swords have been eliminated. Here’s how Savant defines “competitive swings”:

Bat speed is also useful because it stabilizes very quickly, providing signal after just a few swings and true confidence as soon as 10 swings. So it’s a useful quick proxy for hard contact, which takes longer to become predictive. Of course bat speed has no launch angle component, so it isn’t a 1:1 for barrel rate either.

The relevant players here have reached at least 20 swings and many have 30+ or even 40+. That’s not to say players are doomed to these bat speed numbers. For example, this data is through Monday and by Wednesday a few players had moved marginally in either direction.

Biggest Bat Speed Gainers:

• Denzel Clarke is a freaky athlete, climbing OF walls like Spider Man and swinging as hard as Paul Bunyan. The problem: swing speed is the only bat-related thing he’s doing at the 60th %ile or better. And as we noted, there’s no launch angle in bat speed: Clarke has a 71% ground ball rate. Combine that with the 38% K rate and we have a picture of futility. Even with the defense he’s going to lose PT unless he improves in one if not both. An 88% Fast Swing% is probably too high for a guy with his whiff issues.

• Luke Keaschall is a major fantasy FOMO guy for me and this isn’t quelling the envy. With a .260/15/30 profile, it’ll be interesting to see if more bat speed can translate to 20-homer power.

• As a good contact hitter with a pathetic 84.6 EV, Liam Hicks was a total afterthought in drafts, a third or even fourth catcher in draft & hold leagues. Now he’s 7-16 with three homers through 5 games—he hit six homers total in 118 games last year. Hicks probably won’t hold a 94.6 EV all season but with his contact skills and bat speed improvement, could he be the new Keibert Ruiz (15 HR with plus BA)?

• Henry Davis was another deep league backup catcher who’s widely available even in 15-team FAAB leagues. But the former no. 1 overall pick made a number of swing changes this offseason to increase balance and bat speed. So far the latter is there if not the results. He’s also become an excellent defender and taken Pittsburgh’s no. 1 catcher role, so he may be worth a pickup in 2-catcher formats if any results materialize.

• Jackson Merrill bounce back szn? He’s up 2 mph and it’s even more promising that he’s doubling his Fast Swing%. He’s also pulling at a 2° angle vs having an oppo attack angle in prior years.

• Jacob Young is another great defender with a noodle bat—you can usually spot such limitations by a single-digit Fast Swing%—who, because the speed is built in, becomes a lot more interesting if he credibly threatens 10+ HR.

• Victor Scott is in the Young mold but with more pedigree: elite defense, single digit HR, 30+ SB. If he maintains a faster swing he could be a lot more impactful for fantasy.

• Young’s teammate Daylen Lile isn’t a good defender but we knew he can hit. Most considered him a 15/20 type with good BA, but perhaps 20/20 isn’t so pie in the sky if he holds these gains. Lile’s also one of the few Nats playing every day.

• Nolan Schanuel worked on his swing during the offseason. So far the gains are modest—and his Fast Swing% is actually down a bit—but he could be a useful source of BA, sneaky speed, and more pop than expected in deeper leagues.

• Great to see Corbin Carroll and Frankie Lindor as gainers coming off spring hamate injuries.

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Bat Speed Losers

• Is this the year it finally collapses for perennial boring 20-homer 3B Ryan McMahon? Being down almost 8 mph in bat speed can’t signal anything good, and he’s been benched vs a righty already.

• It’s probably natural to rationalize higher fantasy picks, but we’re not worried about Acuna or J Rod.

• Ben Rice may be overshadowed by Shea Bangeliers (who isn’t?), but Rice just hit his first homer and has a .4/.5/.7 early slash line.

• Byron Buxton is old and injury-prone, but just remember he held a .154 OPS last March before batting .260 with 6 bombs in April.

• We are a little worried about Addison Barger, who broke out with the Jays last season but lacks the track record to feel confident in a repeat. He’s only started 3 of 6 games, including riding pine vs a righty.

• Interestingly, new teammate Jesus Sanchez rates even worse by lost bat speed but he’s making contact and also incursions into Barger’s PT.

• Don’t know if Heliot Ramos is trying to make more contact or otherwise adjust to new coaching, but it’s not working. He has incredible raw power. Swing harder again, please.

• Didn’t expect to see Andres Gimenez as a dropper, which might be a sign not to over interpret these early metrics. He’s hitting for average, running, and already popped a HR. Zero fast swings!

• Jake Burger’s results don’t jibe with a loss of bat speed. He’s back hitting tanks and for average.

• Interesting to see so many Jays here, including Daulton Varsho. One driver of their success last year was greater team bat speed (although the ancient George Springer just missed the prior list; his bat speed is actually up a tick).

• Chandler Simpson, king of the Slow Swing, didn’t have much to spare.

• A little concerned about Dansby Swanson, though he’s always been streaky. He’s no Stanton, but zero fast swings is a mild surprise. He had about a 7% Fast Swing% last year.

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Overall Leaders & Laggards

Presented without commentary. You won’t be surprised much by the leaders in each direction.

Fastest Swingers

Monogamists (Get it, they don’t like to swing hard?)

1. https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/fast-swing-rate